Global Risks: Reshaping Global Cooperation & Increasing Uncertainty

Global risks between the United States and other countries, including trade wars and the weaponization of military actions, have widened gaps among nations, reshaping global cooperation and increasing uncertainty among nations.

A. Global Risks

The world has been changing drastically since the beginning of the first wave of globalization in 1870 (Vanham, 2019). In the current era of the fourth globalization—also known as Globalization 4.0—the international community has increased its awareness of the risk of global conflict. This concern arises because, historically, every major leap in global innovation has triggered large-scale wars. For instance, the Industrial Revolution, which initially began in Europe, was one of the contributing factors leading to World War I.

During this era, many cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), big data, and humanoid robotics have been integrated into almost every aspect of human life. These innovations can also threaten their own creators—humans—because technology functions as a double-edged sword. Despite these risks, technological advancement has brought significant benefits, particularly in creating global connectivity through intangible media such as the internet and tangible infrastructure such as high-speed railways and freight transportation. These developments are crucial for improving national indicators (e.g., GDP and HDI), spreading foreign policy influence, and enhancing a country’s global position.

B. The Trade War

In preparing this paper, the writer selected topics related to global risks, the isolationist policy of the United States, and the rise of China through its new initiatives. This paper briefly discusses and connects these issues. One of the most prominent issues between the U.S. and China is the trade war. On the one hand, the U.S. initiated the trade war to pressure and restrain China’s growing influence. On the other hand, China introduced a new initiative that does not include the U.S.

Beyond its new initiative, China has developed rapidly since the 1950s, when it began welcoming massive foreign direct investment (FDI) to stimulate its economy and develop human capital. This development occurred because China offered a large market, relaxed investment policies, and a cheap labor force. As a result, China has become one of the most formidable rivals of developed countries, particularly the U.S.

C. The Isolationist Country

One hypothesis regarding the initial cause of the trade war is that the Trump administration sought to resist the rise of China. In my opinion, President Trump made a mistake by implementing his distinctive foreign policy known as “America First.” During his campaign, Trump focused heavily on U.S. national interests. He emphasized issues such as tax reductions for higher-income groups, immigration control, drug policies, and his opposition to previous policies such as the Obama-era healthcare system.

These priorities led the U.S. to distance itself from international affairs. The Trump administration built metaphorical “walls” to demonstrate U.S. strength and demand greater benefits for itself. However, this approach resulted in the U.S. withdrawing from many international conventions. Trump appeared more concerned with fulfilling campaign promises than addressing global challenges such as climate change, refugee and IDP crises, and global economic recovery. Consequently, the U.S. withdrew from several international agreements, including the Paris Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2017.

D. The Rise of China

The strategic space left by the U.S. under its “America First” policy has increasingly been occupied by China. China has strengthened cooperation with Russia, combining China’s economic strength with Russia’s military capabilities. This partnership has generated positive outcomes for both countries and has deepened due to shared governance styles, historical experiences, strategic interests, and mutual opposition to U.S. dominance.

China has also leveraged its influence across many regions, particularly in Asia, with Russia acting as a key supporter. In 2017, China introduced the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative, which offers various economic and political benefits to both China and participating countries. This initiative appears to provide development opportunities for many countries along the routes, particularly developing nations. President Xi Jinping promoted OBOR as a framework emphasizing economic integration, mutual political trust, and cultural inclusiveness (Wu, 2017).

The OBOR routes aim to connect Asian, European, and African countries more closely and promote mutually beneficial cooperation. According to Wu, OBOR is based on five principles: alignment with the UN Charter, mutual benefit, market-based operation, harmony and inclusiveness, and openness. At least 65 countries have participated in this initiative. However, concerns remain, including the risk of debt traps for countries with weak governance, such as Pakistan and Cambodia (He, 2017). Additionally, OBOR may serve as a tool for China to expand its political influence across Asia and beyond. As Stec (2017) argues, the initiative lacks a clear definition, making its true purpose ambiguous.

E. What’s Next?

Based on the isolation of the U.S. and the attractiveness of China’s initiatives, several assumptions can be made about future developments following the trade war. During the early presidency of Trump, the U.S. increasingly withdrew from international engagement, while China expanded its influence across neighboring countries such as Mongolia, North Korea, Taiwan, and its strategic partner, Russia.

It can be argued that the Trump administration initiated the trade war because the U.S. had limited alternatives to counter China’s rapid rise. The trade war has affected not only the U.S. and China but also many other countries. Its impact may severely affect one side more than the other. While China has faced challenges, such as restrictions on Huawei, the U.S. has also suffered economic consequences. China, however, continues to rely on OBOR as a strategic buffer against U.S. pressure.

E.1. Multipolar World

China may increasingly prioritize its foreign diplomacy through OBOR as a central strategy for the 21st century. While the U.S. can attempt to restrain China through trade policies, this approach may not be sustainable in the long term. Consequently, a multipolar world may emerge, with the U.S., China, and Russia as the primary global actors.

This scenario may push the U.S. to strengthen alliances, particularly with Japan. Japan holds strategic importance due to its influence in Asia and Africa. Japan’s evolving military and foreign policies, including its 2016 peace and security reforms and international aid initiatives, have enhanced its global reputation. Despite domestic criticism, these reforms have solidified Japan’s position and strengthened U.S.-led alliances in competition with China and Russia.

E.2. Non-Polarity World

Alternatively, if the trade war continues to undermine global stability and economic growth, emerging countries with strong governance, such as India and Indonesia, may pursue greater independence from major powers. These countries may align selectively with either China or the U.S., based on national interests.

For example, Indonesia’s Vice President Kalla stated that Indonesia prioritizes its own interests rather than fully adopting OBOR principles (Belt & Road News, 2019). Meanwhile, India has explored alternative infrastructure initiatives with the U.S., Australia, and Japan to counter OBOR (The Times of India, 2018). India remains particularly concerned about the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which passes through disputed territories and provides China access to the Arabian Sea. These concerns may draw India closer to U.S.-led alliances. Ultimately, this situation could lead to a non-polar world in which multiple regional powers play leading roles.

F. Conclusion

This paper has examined global risks and explored potential future trends. Several conclusions can be drawn:

1. President Trump’s early focus on campaign promises contributed to U.S. isolation from international affairs.

2. The “America First” policy created strategic space for China to expand its global influence through OBOR.

3. OBOR represents a multifaceted initiative encompassing political, diplomatic, and economic objectives.

4. The ambiguity and scale of OBOR have raised concerns among many countries, particularly U.S. allies.

5. The trade war reflects U.S. efforts to counter China’s rise, including its partnership with Russia.

6. Two possible outcomes may emerge: a multipolar world led by the U.S., China, and Russia, or a non-polar world in which emerging powers such as Japan, India, and Indonesia strengthen their national capacities.

G. References

Belt & Road News. (2019, April 25). Indonesia’s interests will take priority at Belt and Road Forum.https://www.beltandroad.news/2019/04/25/indonesias-interests-will-take-priority-at-belt-road-forum/

He, T. (2017). One Belt, One Road: China’s grand enterprise. Asia Pacific Risk Center, Marsh & McLennan Companies.https://www.mmc.com/content/dam/oliver-wyman/v2/publications/2017/aug/Navigating_The_New_Silk_Road.pdf

Stec, G. (2017). China’s Belt and Road Initiative is neither a strategy nor a vision—it is a process. European Institute for Asian Studies.https://www.eias.org/eu-asia-at-a-glance/chinas-belt-and-road-initiatives-is-neither-a-strategy-nor-a-vision-it-is-a-process/

The Times of India. (2018, February 21). India, the U.S., Australia, and Japan mull OBOR alternative.https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-us-australia-japan-mull-obor-alternative/articleshow/62990964.cms

Vanham, P. (2019, January 17). A brief history of globalization. World Economic Forum.https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/01/how-globalization-4-0-fits-into-the-history-of-globalization/

Wu, S. (2017). Understanding One Belt One Road initiative of China. Wuhan University of Technology.